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Some fantastic compositing and animation work, not to mention a nice storyline in this piece visualizing how future virtual environments might be built and used. This is from Bruce Branit who was also behind one of the Internet’s very first viral video “405.” I’m a fan (and not just because he uses Lightwave 3D for his animation). Enjoy when you have 9 minutes to spare.

During CES, the Blu-ray Disc Association released sales numbers for the Holiday season and they look fairly positive:

Nearly 1,100 BD titles now available

24 million discs sold in 2008; compared to 5 million discs sold in 2007

The panel also addressed the main concerns that folks have about Blu-ray - the cost of players and titles, and alternative means of downloading HD movies to own over Broadband:

The comparatively high cost of Blu-ray players and movies continues to keep many consumers from jumping aboard. However, the panel cited the increased number of players whose price dropped below $200 this holiday season. “Low end pricing will go lower,” said Richard Doherty of Envsioneering.

As for the competition posed by digital downloads, the panel believes that cost and availability of high-speed broadband will prevent streaming media from surging ahead of Blu-ray.

As for me, I’m still a fan of the PS3 if you’re dying to get a player. The street expects the price to drop. Even Microsoft has weighed in on rumors that the PS3’s price will drop below $399 in the next few months. Unfortunately for Sony, this will mean a further loss on each unit which cost around $448 each to build. Ouch!

Num chucks rule! Fantastic Video Ad for the N96 “Bruce Lee Edition.”

-E

This is a very cool working demo of how human-computer interaction might look moving forward using “gesturally driven displays”. This one actualizes some of what was envisioned in the movie Minority Report. More info can be found at Oblong Industries Web site. I love the plain-English overview explanation found in the first couple of paragraphs on the Web site:

Oblong Industries is the developer of the g-speak spatial operating environment. The SOE’s combination of gestural i/o, recombinant networking, and real-world pixels brings the first major step in computer interface since 1984; starting today, g-speak will fundamentally change the way people use machines at work, in the living room, in conference rooms, in vehicles. The g-speak platform is a complete application development and execution environment that redresses the dire constriction of human intent imposed by traditional GUIs. Its idiom of spatial immediacy and information responsive to real-world geometry enables a necessary new kind of work: data-intensive, embodied, real-time, predicated on universal human expertise.

“…dire constriction of human intent imposed by traditional GUIs.”

Priceless. Here is a look at it:


g-speak overview 1828121108 from john underkoffler on Vimeo.

At the 2008 CES in January of this year, Blu-ray celebrated its “win” over HD-DVD in the so-called High Definition DVD format war. You could argue that it was good for the consumer that we now have a single high definition format, and I would argue (personally) that the best format won. So why haven’t I purchased a player yet? Why am I not buying new Titles in this format? Probably for the same reasons you aren’t:

1. Sure the quality is much better than standard DVD, but for the average consumer, standard DVD is plenty good. The newer DVD players do a great job up converting the display to HD sets and many consumers are hard pressed to tell the difference.
2. The equipment and discs are expensive. Players are, for the most part, north of $200 dollars. Discs are costly as well. Even at Amazon.com prices you’re shelling out $26 bucks for Iron Man (with a retail cost of almost $40).
3. Interactive features and new menuing schemes aren’t enough of a differentiator. No doubt about it - if you have played with the Blu-ray menuing system or seen a disc that is BD-Live enabled - you know how much better the user experience is from standard DVD, however, these enhancements don’t yet appeal to the mass market.
4. Why buy physical media when it is getting easier and easier to get HD movies from online services?

It is number 4 that I want to delve into a bit more deeply. While I’m not a huge fan of standalone VOD appliances like Roku or Vudu, some recent announcements from Netflix have turned my head. Engaget broke the news a few days ago that Netflix would begin providing movies in High Definition streamed to the Xbox 360. We’ve seen several announcements from Netflix over the past year as they have begun integration with consumer devices including Blu-ray players, TVs and a recent announcement of support on Tivo Series 3. Now we’re talking. If I’ve already invested in a high end gaming platform and have broadband to my house, there is no reason anymore for me to own a player for movie rental.

But what about owning an HD movie? With the Vudu service, you can purchase HD movies today, but they only “live” on your Vudu box. iTunes sells SD movies today (HD is only available for rental), but I predict it won’t be long before you can purchase the HD version of a movie to add to your iTunes library. Point is, there are “for sale” services emerging now, which will let you purchase the high definition version of a film, without requiring you to purchase the physical media (the disc).

Now, I don’t want to get in to a debate about what “HD” means when it’s delivered online vs. on a Blu-ray disc. I concede that “Internet HD” isn’t at the same quality level as Blu-ray HD, but I refer you to point 1 above. If it’s good enough . . .

So, here is what I expect this holiday season. Blu-ray players will see a cost reduction just in time for the Thanksgiving weekend along with select Titles. The industry needs to see a huge boost in sales, otherwise there is a real risk that Blu-ray acceptance may just limp along a la Laserdisc in the 80s (remember those things?).

My advice is wait. Wait to see how things pan out over the Holiday season. Save your money. There would be nothing worse than sinking cash into a new player and Titles only to have the industry stop producing them for lack of consumer acceptance, and go exclusively to a download/streaming model over the next year. If you do want to buy a Blu-ray player, consider the Sony PS3. While it is more expensive, you can obviously do a lot more with it than just watch Blu-ray movies.

I believe that physical media will eventually go away - maybe not next year, but certainly within the next few years as broadband penetration and entertainment devices find their way into everyone’s homes. Now, if we just had a slick way to manage all of that downloaded content to all of those devices . . .